(The world of negotiation rarely happens in isolation. External forces — from politics to tariffs — can transform even a straightforward deal into a complex challenge. Our ROLE PLAY scenario, "Filming Under Tariffs", places participants directly into this reality.)

The announcement of a 100% tariff on all films produced outside the United States by Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through the entertainment industry. While the headline may sound like a direct strike at companies like Netflix, the ripple effects would be felt far beyond streaming services, impacting cinemas, local film industries and even the way audiences watch and access content.

This is more than just a question of cost .... it’s about global culture, trade policy and the future of storytelling.

The Immediate Tariff Impact on Streaming Services

Streaming platforms like Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV+ have built their reputations on global libraries of content, much of it produced outside the US.

• Netflix has invested billions into international productions like Squid Game (Korea), Money Heist (Spain), and The Crown (UK).
• Disney+ relies on global shoots for franchises like Star Wars and Marvel.
• Amazon Prime famously spent $465 million on its UK-filmed series The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power.

A 100% tariff would effectively double the cost of bringing these titles to American subscribers.
Streaming services would be forced to make tough choices:

• Absorb the cost — eating into profits.
• Pass the cost to subscribers — risking cancellations.
• Pull non-US content from US libraries — reducing diversity and choice.

For US audiences, this could mean a smaller, more expensive Netflix, while international audiences might see content delays as companies prioritise the American market.

The Global Film Industry at Risk

Outside the US, the effects could be devastating.

Many countries have thriving film industries because of streaming platforms investing in local productions. South Korea, Spain, the UK and India have all benefited from Netflix’s global strategy.

With film tariffs in place:

• These jobs and investments may vanish as US companies bring production back to America to avoid penalties.
• Iconic non-US projects — from The Crown to Squid Game — may never have been made under such conditions.
• Smaller countries with developing creative industries could lose their path to global audiences.

In short, this policy risks reversing years of globalisation in storytelling.

Cinemas and Theatres: A Shrinking Menu

It’s not just streaming that would feel the pinch. Cinemas rely on a mix of domestic and international films to draw diverse audiences.

A 100% tariff would mean:

• Fewer foreign-language hits like Parasite reaching US theatres.
• Global franchises like James Bond, which is UK-produced, becoming too expensive to distribute.
• American audiences losing out on cultural variety, as cinemas default to Hollywood blockbusters.

This could homogenise movie-going, making US cinema less adventurous and less competitive.

Positive Outcomes: A Silver Lining?

While most effects are negative, there could be some winners if tariffs are applied.

1. A Boost for US Production

• American studios and workers could see a boom in local filming, as companies rush to avoid tariffs.
• US-based productions might get more funding, creating jobs and strengthening Hollywood’s dominance.

2. Rise of Regional Streaming Platforms

• Outside the US, smaller regional services might gain subscribers as Netflix and others reduce non-US production budgets.
• This could lead to a renaissance of local storytelling, with platforms like Viki (Asia), Shahid (Middle East), or All4 (UK) becoming stronger alternatives.

3. Legal Innovation and Trade Debates

• The battle over whether digital films count as “goods” for tariffs could lead to new legal precedents.
• This may open the door to rethinking global trade policies for digital services, with ripple effects far beyond entertainment.

Negative Outcomes: The Hidden Costs

The negatives, however, are far more significant and immediate.

1. Higher Prices for Consumers

Netflix, Disney+, and others will have no choice but to raise subscription fees, making streaming less accessible.

VPN use and piracy will likely skyrocket as people seek ways around restrictions.

2. Loss of Cultural Exchange

Global platforms have helped share stories across borders, from Korean dramas to Spanish thrillers.

Tariffs could lead to a cultural retreat, with fewer opportunities to experience diverse perspectives.

3. Uncertain Business Models

• Studios may cancel projects mid-production if their tax status is unclear.
• Co-productions involving US and non-US teams will become legally complex, slowing the pace of innovation.

4. Impact on Emerging Creators

• For smaller countries and independent creators, Netflix and other global platforms have been lifelines.
• A tariff-heavy system could shut these doors, leaving many without a platform or audience.

What Could People and Businesses Do?

If you don't practice with role plays such as our "Filming Under Tariffs" then adaptation will be key:

• Consumers might turn to VPNs or piracy to access content, or migrate to local streaming platforms.
• Studios and streamers will explore creative loopholes, such as classifying films as services rather than goods, or structuring productions as joint ventures with US entities.
• International businesses could seek trade exemptions or form new alliances to keep the global market flowing.

A Policy That Changes Everything

A 100% tariff on foreign-made films wouldn’t just affect Netflix.

It would reshape the entire entertainment ecosystem, from how movies are made to how audiences experience them.

While there are potential benefits ... such as growth in US jobs and opportunities for local platforms outside America ... the overall effect would likely be reduced cultural diversity, higher costs, and less freedom of choice for consumers worldwide.

In an increasingly connected world, this policy feels like a step backward, raising questions about whether political protectionism and global storytelling can ever truly coexist.

About the Author Philip Brown

Phil Brown is the founder of The Negotiation Club, a training organisation built on the belief that negotiation is a skill developed through practice, not theory. With 30 years of procurement and commercial experience, Phil now helps professionals worldwide build confidence and fluency through structured, repeatable negotiation practice. Experience Phils unique negotiation practice at a FREE NEGOTIATION TASTER ....

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