For years, Christmas has carried a familiar rhythm for retailers and consumers alike: orders placed in spring, factories in China humming through summer, containers leaving ports by early September and shelves filling just in time for Black Friday.

This year, however, the cadence has been broken. The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China—and in particular the stop-start tariff negotiations—have disrupted not just margins, but the very timing of Christmas itself. 

The Timing Trap: When Uncertainty Collides with Seasonal Lead Times

The Christmas retail machine runs on long lead times. Retailers must place orders five to six months in advance to secure production slots and guarantee delivery. That means purchase commitments are locked in by late spring or early summer if goods are to reach U.S. stores by October.

In 2025, tariff decisions came too late for many buyers.

• A 90-day tariff truce was announced in August, but by then most factories were already fully booked or closing their seasonal lines.

• Section-301 tariff exclusions were extended until 29 November 2025, providing relief for some categories but arriving after retailers had already made tough calls.

The result? Many companies reduced orders or trimmed SKUs rather than gamble on unpredictable duty costs. Artificial trees, decorative lights and other tariff-sensitive products are already showing signs of scarcity. The effect will be seen not only in prices but also in limited choice on shelves.

Costs Layering Up: Beyond the Sticker Price

This winter’s cost pressures don’t stop at tariffs.

• Ocean freight rates, while softer than their summer peaks, remain volatile as carriers impose General Rate Increases (GRIs) when demand surges.

• The end of the de minimis duty exemption on low-value parcels (as of 29 August) hits direct-to-consumer e-commerce shipments hard, making those “little extras” purchased online more expensive almost overnight.

• Even where freight has stabilised, retailers face higher input costs from factories squeezed by raw material inflation and the uncertainty of last-minute tariff swings.

The practical effect? Retailers are preparing customers for higher prices, fewer promotions and slimmer assortments compared with last year.

Why This Year Feels Different

We’ve seen tariff disputes before, but 2025 is unique because of the collision of three forces:

1. Seasonal immovability – Christmas can’t be postponed. Miss the production window and the season is lost.

2. Late policy clarity – Decisions on exclusions and tariff pauses came after the crucial ordering months, leaving little room for adjustment.

3. Direct-to-consumer shock – The removal of the de minimis exemption makes tariffs suddenly tangible not just for retailers, but for ordinary families shopping online.

In short, tariffs this year won’t just be a line item on a company’s balance sheet—they will be felt directly by households filling their stockings.

A Subtle Upside?

It’s worth pausing to consider the bigger picture. Over the last few decades, Christmas has increasingly become a festival of material abundance, often marked by throw-away expenditures on decorations, novelty items and cheap plastic goods.

Fewer “one-season” products in circulation could, arguably, be better for the environment. Less waste. Less excess packaging. Perhaps a nudge towards more thoughtful consumption.

And yet—while adults may appreciate this perspective, there’s one lingering question:

Will the children be happy? 🤔

Practice For Christmas....

Here are five role play scenarios designed for practice at The Negotiation Club, focusing on the tariff and Christmas season dynamics. Each is set up so that both buyers and sellers can switch roles, experience the pressures and practise negotiation tactics:

1. The Artificial Tree Shortage

Context: Retail Buyer needs 5,000 artificial trees for November delivery. The Chinese Supplier has limited production slots due to reduced orders earlier in the year and tariff uncertainty.

Variables to Negotiate: 

• Unit price (tariffs may add 10–25%).

• Order quantity (Supplier prefers larger MOQ).

• Delivery method (ocean vs air freight).

• Payment terms (advance vs extended).

Practice Focus: 

• Practise anchoring references (start with tariff-inclusive vs tariff-exclusive offers).

• Use summarising to clarify tariff risks and options.

• Explore conditional trade-offs: “If we increase the order now, can you hold the pre-tariff price?”

2. The De Minimis Dilemma

Context:  Small US Online Retailer sources low-value ornaments from a Seller in China. With the end of the de minimis exemption, every parcel now faces a flat duty.

Variables to Negotiate: 

• Bulk shipping vs direct parcel fulfilment.

• Duty-sharing arrangements.

• Packaging changes (bundle items together).

• Longer-term contract vs spot buy.

Practice Focus: 

• Practise creative problem-solving under regulatory constraints.

• Explore “In My Shoes” empathy: Seller must understand Retailer’s e-commerce pressures; Buyer must see Seller’s margin squeeze.

3. The Late Commitment Trap

Context: US Retail Chain delayed orders waiting for tariff clarity. Now it’s September, and they need urgent production. The Chinese Factory is fully booked but could reprioritise at a premium.

Variables to Negotiate: 

• Premium pricing vs guaranteed slot.

• Reduced assortment (fewer SKUs) vs full order.

• Shared risk for unused materials if order shrinks.

• Future guarantee (next season commitment).

Practice Focus: 

• Practise saying “No” constructively when capacity is genuinely limited.

• Test long-term relationship building versus short-term gain.

• Use patience tactic: hold firm when pressured with urgency.

4. Retailer vs Wholesaler Conflict

Context:  Wholesaler has already imported Christmas lights at tariff-inflated prices. A Major Retail Buyer is refusing to accept the pass-through costs, threatening to switch to domestic alternatives.

Variables to Negotiate: 

• Price per carton (pre- vs post-tariff).

• Volume commitment.

• Promotional contributions (shared advertising costs).

• Return or rebate clauses.

Practice Focus: 

• Practise tariff pass-through clause negotiations.

• Explore conditional offers: “If you take X volume, we can absorb Y% of the tariff.”

• Practise flinching and odd numbers to reframe price arguments.

5. E-Commerce Bundling Experiment

Context: Seller in China proposes bundling sets of products to make shipments more cost-efficient under the new duty regime. Buyer in the US is sceptical, worried about higher basket prices turning off customers.

Variables to Negotiate: 

• Bundle size/assortment.

• Wholesale price per bundle.

• Risk-sharing if bundles don’t sell.

• Marketing contributions (discount codes, seasonal promotions).

Practice Focus: 

• Practise clarification questions to probe assumptions (“What evidence do you have that bundles sell?”).

• Explore mirroring words cautiously to test the other’s confidence.

• Use trial closes to see if the other side is leaning toward agreement.

Each of these role plays can be run as a 4–6 minute timed negotiation, followed by observer feedback on tactics used, particularly around handling tariff-related uncertainty.

... Good Luck!

About the Author Philip Brown

Phil Brown is the founder of The Negotiation Club, a training organisation built on the belief that negotiation is a skill developed through practice, not theory. With 30 years of procurement and commercial experience, Phil now helps professionals worldwide build confidence and fluency through structured, repeatable negotiation practice. Experience Phils unique negotiation practice at a FREE NEGOTIATION TASTER ....

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